This report maps external developments in the fields of crime, terrorism and public order and explores the impact these developments have on Dutch police work. The strong nexus between internal and external security issues urges national police forces to accurately monitor what is going on in the world. International police cooperation is an important element of the police’s response to transnational security threats. The agenda for international police cooperation thus needs to be based on a good understanding of relevant developments abroad. In this study, external threats are considered relevant to the Dutch Police if they directly or indirectly affect the security situation in the Netherlands. For a better understanding of the (potential) influence external threats have on the police’s national responsibilities, the study proposes a conceptual framework, discerning four types of connections between external and internal security: logistical, social, digital and cultural connections:

There are many forms and instruments for international police cooperation. In order to contribute to an optimal deployment of these instruments, this study is aimed at answering the following central question: which external security developments are of relevance for the agenda of international cooperation of the Dutch Police? Since the analytical framework behind the police’s international agenda is intentionally biased by the intensity of existing cooperation and information exchange with other countries and by existing national police priorities, this study’s design takes an outside perspective. The study centres around five regional chapters which identify the most prominent security issues different parts of the world are confronted with. Having mapped the contours and trends of regional security threats and developments in crisis/conflict, public order, crime and terrorism, the study determines which links exist between these external issues and the internal security situation of the Netherlands. Each regional study concludes with the most important types of actors that play a role in countering the issues strongly linked to Dutch security.

The main issues on European security agendas strongly correspond to prominent security threats the Netherlands faces. Most visibly are the terrorist threat and the migration crisis. The threat of terrorist attacks by radicalised “lone wolves” or returned foreign fighters remains real in many countries, also on the Balkans and in the Russian Federation. The European Union and the Balkans have seen large flows of irregular migrants, resulting in a conundrum of security effects and threats. Human smuggling and trafficking are on the rise as criminal markets, but migration flows have also led to polarisation in European societies and a worrying decline in solidarity between EU countries. Cybercrime and cyber support for traditional forms of crime are strongly on the rise and traditional criminal markets, such as the market for illicit drugs, have proven to be solid. The rise of the availability and use of heavy firearms in organised crime scenes and increasing stockpiles of arms in countries such as Ukraine and Libya are worrying developments, also in relation to terrorist threats. Being one of Europe’s prominent logistic nodes, the Netherlands plays a prominent role as transport hub for illegal commodities.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has become a zone of instability and conflict since the Arab spring in 2011. Terrorist networks have gained ground in significant parts of the region, attracting thousands of European followers. Drug smugglers as well as other traffickers profit from the opportunities offered to them by countries with corrupt and weak governments. The VAE is an exception: having remained stable, with a high demand for foreign investments, the presence of free trade areas, and its attractive infrastructural and financial facilities, these countries in the Arabian peninsula are also interesting for money-laundering, smuggling of drugs and counterfeit consumer goods, etc. Massive migration flows cross the region towards Europe. However, to a large extent, migrants remain within the region, resulting in millions of refugees finding accommodation in countries such as Jordan, Iran and Lebanon. The Netherlands faces significant consequences of all these security issues: the migration and drugs flows are partly destined for the Netherlands and the terrorist hotbeds in the region have laid their eyes on Europe for future terrorist attacks. For the Netherlands, Morocco is – apart from the VAE and conflict zones such as Libya – a key country in this region.

The security situation in Sub-Sahara Africa is constantly under stress with young populations, high unemployment, poverty, urbanisation, wide availability of weapons, and weak governments being some of the most significant factors behind eruptions of conflict and violence. Drug trafficking, the smuggling and trafficking of human beings, terrorism and environmental crimes are the most prominent police related issues. Several African regions have grown in significance as a transit region for drugs arriving from South America and Afghanistan heading towards Europe. Irregular migrants reach the Netherlands as well. Some of the environmental crimes are directly linked to the Netherlands, such as the illicit flow of electronic waste from Europe to Africa. However, not all of these African security issues directly impact the European or Dutch security situation. Migratory flows primarily remain within the country borders and are often related to forms of exploitation, such as the recruitment of child soldiers. The internal terrorist threat in Africa is on the rise, especially Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab cause increasing numbers of victims. These are sources of regional instability that might affect the Netherlands in the long term, leading to increasing fragility of states that might attract new transnational criminal activity, or leading to new migratory flows.

The Americas are prominently threatened by the trafficking of cocaine and opioids. In Central America and the Andes region, drug crime corresponds to outbreaks of violence, and trafficking and smuggling of humans. Moreover, drug cartels are involved in territorial conflicts with one another. Another problem specifically related to this region regards the violence being caused by the illegal trade and widespread possession of firearms. Migratory flows in this region show similar patters to other regions, being mostly internal and interregional and closely connected to labour- and sexual exploitation. Regarding terrorism, the peace agreement with FARC might be an important turning point, since the FARC has been the leading source of terrorist violence for decades. In North America, the nationalist White Sovereign movement is considered to be the dominant terrorist threat, although the fear of jihadist attacks remains. In terms of connections to the Netherlands, the logistical links are most apparent, especially in the case of drug-trafficking and to a lesser, but growing extent with regard to migrants and jihadist terrorists. In addition, the security in the Netherlands is affected by social and cultural links, as well as related intense trade lines, with Suriname and the Dutch Antilles. Strong cultural links also exist with the US, for example between movements with white supremacist motives, and between anti-discrimination movements such as Black Lives Matter, the latter being of special importance to the Dutch police.

In Asia and Oceania the trafficking of heroin and (precursors for) synthetic drugs, cybercrime, terrorism and irregular migratory flows constitute the most prominent threats. Drug-trafficking flows often originate in Afghanistan, whereas East-Asia, South-East Asia and Oceania have become large consumer markets for drugs. Cybercrime is on the rise in the region because of increasing numbers of cyber attacks originating from China, India and South-Korea and typical crime areas for this region are the illegal trade in counterfeit goods and in goods related to crimes against the environment. Looking at the connections between the Netherlands and Asia and Oceania, the security threats move in both ways. On the one hand, drug related crime and cybercrime from Asia affect the internal security environment of the Netherlands and an increasing flow of migrants, especially from Afghanistan and China moves towards Europe. On the other hand, Dutch persons and motorcycle clubs head to Asia and take part in drug-trafficking and the sexual exploitation of children and women. Furthermore, Dutch synthetic drugs find growing markets in Australia, New Zealand and South-East Asia.

The report identifies types of actors that can be of value to the Netherlands in countering the transnational security issues that it is affected by. However, the actual selection of partners for international police cooperation can only follow from the new agenda for and policy vision on police cooperation. Partners with whom the police traditionally cooperates are state actors, such as the police, intelligence and immigration agencies, customs and judicial authorities. Regional police organisations are of growing importance in many regions of the world, for example ECOWAS, ASEAN and AMERIPOL all have expanding programs aimed at countering terrorism and organised crime. In countries with weak rule of law-structures, multilateral actors such as the UN and EU run programs or missions in order to bridge security gaps. Also, in many regions of the world NGOs play an important role in countering environmental crimes and labour- or sexual exploitation. Private companies, especially in cybersecurity and the financial sector, are of relevance for countering cybercrime and financial crimes. In fragile states, under certain conditions, other types of multinational companies can be of value as well, since these often provide for their own security and therefore have sound situational awareness.

In conclusion, from an external perspective, the most prominent transnational threats to the Netherlands are drug trafficking, cybercrime, terrorism and the longer term-effects of crisis and conflict situations in especially the MENA-region and Africa. A remarkable finding is that unstable countries with a high level of corruption and violence prove to be attractive for criminal logistics, but relatively stable countries or cities with good facilities are of relevance just as well and more attractive as meeting points and residence for criminal actors. The report confirms a strong interconnectedness between Dutch security issues and developments in the rest of Europe and the MENA region. However, the larger share of dominant threats in all regions directly or indirectly affects the Netherlands. In particular logistical and social connections appear to be significant for the Netherlands: it is an important source and destination for illegal goods and financial flows, a logistical hub, and it has high quality digital structures. The digital connection becomes more and more important with a growing share of the world population having access to the internet and with a rapidly evolving field of cybercrime and cyber support for other types of crime. On the cultural level the Netherlands absorbs shocks from conflicts and protests that take place elsewhere in the world, such as the failed coup in Turkey and (protests against) police killings in the US.

However, not all links between internal and external security issues identified in this report, can be explained in terms of existing connections. In the longer term, the nexus becomes more complex and requires a different vocabulary. Spill-over effects from humanitarian crises and conflicts tend to change the logistical, social or cultural landscape, or can occur quite sudden, as was shown by the crash of flight MH17 above eastern Ukraine in 2014, which had a huge impact on the Dutch agenda for police cooperation. Aside from the needed organisational flexibility in reacting to incidents and sudden changes in the external security landscape, the nature of many of the structural transnational problems discussed in this report demands a harmonised multinational approach, addressing not only security issues in the countries of destination, but also root causes and facilitating circumstances. This asks for a broad interpretation of the existing doctrine of limiting international police cooperation to national operational interests.