Background
Planetary Security refers to the intricate relationship between the environment and conflict, with the former often acting as a stress factor to the latter. Within this relationship, economics often has a crucial role to play. In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Terrorism and small-to-large scale disputes between nations and ethnic groups, and the recent economic and financial crisis of 2008, have shaken the confidence of many in the robustness of international relations, and in the global financial system. In addition to this, the potential risks of climate change give impetus to the rise of unease and uncertainty as to how the future of the world will eventually take shape. This bears more weight as fundamental changes on a global level hardly ever come about smoothly and are likely to have far-reaching effects. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude of stress factors. Environmental stress, and in particular stress caused by climate change, is only one of these factors. Nonetheless, in light of its diverse and multiplier impacts, it remains an important one.
Since the advent of the 21st century, the debate over the adverse effects of climate change has taken on an increasingly important role in contemporary political discourse. Early climate change discussions focused heavily on the results of the seminal 1998 hockey stick graph[1], which was essentially a reconstruction of the changes in average temperature levels since the year 1400.[2] Later, climate change political discourse turned to examine its economic effects in more detail. Key reports such as the review by Lord Nicholas Stern outlined grim scenarios where the global economy would suffer from a permanent state of depression by 2050[3] due to the adverse effects of climate change.[4] The Stern Review has since been followed by a large number of specialized, yet supportive, studies into the economic effects of climate change.[5]
The economics of planetary security is a concept still in its infancy. The concept has two dimensions: The first dimension recognizes the economics of planetary security as an interconnected system of climate change, the economy and conflict, and their negative domestic and international impacts. It also includes the ability of public and private actors to mitigate the effects of stress factors in a given country. The second dimension is addressed in our monitor, which quantifies the reactive policy capacities of public and private actors through the incorporation of economic data.
The second dimension captures this, taking the term ‘economic’ in its numerical form. The basis of this monitor is a multi-layered quantitative framework, with each layer illustrating core tenets of the economics of planetary security as a system. These layers include a given country’s vulnerability to both climate change and conflict, their dependency on non-renewable energy sources, and their economic ability to mitigate the negative effects of these vulnerabilities and dependencies. The monitor increases risk awareness and provides data-driven information on, for instance, the economic preparedness of countries with regard to their ability to combat climate change stress and minimize its capacity to catalyze conflict and economic upheaval.
Conflict risk and the economics of climate change, although heavily studied, have not yet been systematically linked. The supporting evidence that climate change is likely to bring about changes in the global economic system, and subsequently increase conflict and investment risk, highlights the need for such a systematic analysis. If reactions to climate change are not coordinated correctly they could - in their own right - result in unexpected economic changes, and in turn contribute to conflict risk.
Report aim and structure
This report examines the economics of planetary security by focusing on climate change as a stress factor for conflict and its intricate relationship with various societal sectors. The intended audience of this report is policymakers as well as stakeholders from the private sector. By using the conceptual framework put forward in the first half of the report as a lens through which to view the data in the latter half of the report, recommendations are generated which aim to elucidate how to increase resilience to climate change-induced stress at a state, environmental and economic level. The report consists of two main parts: Chapters 2 to 4 qualitatively discuss the economics of climate change as a policy topic. Building on that discussion, chapters 5 and 6 then introduce an experimental quantitative framework for analyzing vulnerabilities and economic resilience to climate change induced conflict. Chapter 7 gives overall conclusions and policy recommendations, and outlines the need for further research on the framework in the future. The monitor in its current form is an investigation into the economics of planetary security. Using the conceptual outline in the first half of the report as a lens through which to view the data, the indicators were operationalized to give a holistic understanding of the complexity of the economics of planetary security. The purpose of this report and monitor is to provide policymakers and business professionals alike with a basic contextualization of the factors that need to be incorporated when creating both policies and business plans related to climate change.