Nearing the brink? Political instability in Tajikistan

Despite reports that Tajikistan is headed for collapse, there is little hint that serious political instability is on the horizon.

In this report, author Markus Göransson states that the repressive regime of president Emomali Rahmon seems securely in place, while its adversaries remain weak and divided. Claims that Tajikistan is threatened by foreign and homegrown Islamists seem overblown, inflated by a regime that is keen to draw attention away from its human rights abuses and poor economic performance.

This report considers drivers of stability and tension in Tajikistan. It urges Western actors to engage more assertively with the Tajik government, which uses its perceived fragility to consolidate its hold on power.