Hungary and the EU: not so critical as you may think

Shaping public mood: the securitization of migration

Hungary tends to be regarded as the number one troublemaker on the European political scene, mostly because it’s handling of the 2015 migration crisis. In contrast  to this rather negative image, Hungarian citizens trust the European Union more than the average European (41 percent to 32 percent), but trust levels have dropped significantly, with 15 points throughout 2015. The positive image of the EU has not suffered the same setback: it remains largely aligned with the European average (39 percent of Hungarians say they have a positive image of the Union, to 37 percent of Europeans), only 20 percent have a negative assessment of the EU.

The decline in trust levels is rooted in the perception of migration: Hungarians tend to overestimate the importance of immigration and terrorism – mostly due to the deliberate efforts of the government. Therefore, the inability of the EU to handle the migration crisis raised fears in some parts of the population. The rationality of this fear is questionable because only 56 percent of Hungarians think they know what is happening in the world, and Hungary was not under serious migratory pressures since August 2015.

Hungarians are aware of the benefits the EU brought them after the accession: roughly five percent of the population, about 500,000 people are working abroad, while the support for leaving the EU remains low, with only six percent strongly opposing Hungarian membership. Hungary ranks fifth in Eurobarometer surveys among Member States when asked about attachment to the European Union, while a recent study of Pew Research Center also found the Hungarians very supportive of the EU. On the other hand, ignorance and unawareness are the most important factors shaping the EU’s image in Hungary, as only 41 percent of the population is convinced they are well informed about the EU. When asked whether they think positively about the EU, the largest share of the respondents remain undecided in 2015.

Political parties: only fringe voices questioning membership

The relationship with the European Union is one of the major cleavages of Hungarian domestic politics. Even though the governing party is regarded EU-sceptic in some Western European capitals, in reality it never considered secession as a real alternative. Fidesz might be categorized as a soft EU-sceptic party, opposing European federalism. The political left is committed to the federalist ideology, and even far-right Jobbik became more mainstream on European issues, expressing its wish to transform the EU by saying that leaving the EU is no longer on the agenda. The unexpected tone-change of Jobbik highlights that hard EU-skepticism cannot be converted to a large number of votes.

The population’s unawareness of European issues makes it hard to answer the question ‘what kind of EU is desired in Hungary’. Based on Eurobarometer data, Hungarians support the free movement of people, a common foreign and security policy, the digital single market and a common energy policy the most. Parties are inconsistent in their European approach: when in government they prefer a more powerful Council, while in opposition they prefer a stronger Commission and Parliament, with the objective to keep the government at bay and provide for ‘objective’ oversight. It must be noted that Hungarian MEPs tend to use the European Parliament to escalate domestic political battles to a higher, European level.

Theoretically, Hungary as a net recipient of EU funds could benefit from a larger European budget. According to estimates, EU assistance account for 2 percent of Hungarian economic growth, and they are also vital for subsidizing the web of ‘entrepreneurs’ surrounding political parties. However, as the current political line of the government is against ‘more Europe’, it is hard to imagine that practical interests would override political objectives, at least in the official communication.

A changing Hungarian role within the EU – a steep learning curve?

Judging from the opinion polls, there is disconnect between the population and the government about the future of Europe. While more than 50 percent support a deeper integration, the government would like to see a stronger Council, with less powers delegated to Brussels. For example, in the latest Eurobarometer 84 survey more than half of Hungarians support a common European migration policy in late 2015, while the government strongly rejects the idea.

Because of the population’s unawareness, the government’s objectives frame the Hungarian standpoint about the future of the EU. Prime Minister Orbán is eager to engage other European leaders with bringing relevant but unpopular questions to the European discussion, showcasing Central European interests, and rejecting the paternalization of older Member States.

His calls for a Europe which is ‘National where possible, European where necessary’ might connect him with like-minded European leaders. Because of last year’s attention, Mr. Orbán’s government is quickly learning how to work the floor on European fora, abandoning the critical-only stance, and starting to contribute meaningful suggestions, similar to the recent 10 points proposal to handle migration. If the government can keep this positive and constructive attitude in the future, they might be able to overcome the current negative associations surrounding Hungary in European political circles.

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Márton Ugrósdy is Research Fellow at the Hongarian Insitute of Foreign Affairs.