The world in 2016: Views and previews from Clingendael

More than 25 Clingendael staff members hazarded one or more predictions regarding over sixty issues, looking ahead at the year to come.

They were not asked to deliver the impossible. The idea was not to make predictions that are bound to come true per se, experts were allowed to give their perspective on more uncertain trends or events that may not be ruled out beforehand. Once more, Clingendael has shown to host a pluriformity of abilities: the views that were presented are not always uniform, the diaphragm and shutter time are not necessarily the same, but after a single-handed editing effort there is nevertheless a consistent ‘Clingendael view’ on political developments around the world. For example: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton might reside in the White House soon, depending on which of our experts you would consult, the electoral margins are only small. There are multiple ‘futures’ regarding ISIS or Assad, Afghanistan’s fate (Taliban or not?), the United Kingdom (Brexit or not?), the relationship with Putin – as far as Clingendael is concerned, these issues are all closely related. That is to say: electorally, or as exits along the highway of history. The electoral margin is small, but naturally the margin of outcomes is large. You will find both.

With regard to the importance of the issues on which the Clingendael staff members give their opinions, views are generally in agreement. Geopolitics is (not quite) back, so the rising countries (China), the countries that are falling behind (Russia), the crumbling regions (Middle East) and struggling blocs (EU) are all extensively represented. We see wide-ranging global issues (maintaining order, climate, security/terrorism, refugees, technology, cyberspace) on the agenda, but the narrower Dutch perspective (EU presidency, our contribution to peacekeeping and conflict management, our position towards neighbouring countries, including Venezuela) is also considered. (It is notable that our candidacy for a seat in the UN Security Council and its accompanying expectations are not mentioned.)

To do justice to the pluriformity, this editing effort has not resulted in the preparation of a homogenous mixture with no recognizable identity. Rather, it has been limited to the occasional subdivision and arrangement of separate contributions and the addition of some introductory paragraphs.