Events
Conference "Challenging uncertainties: the future of the Netherlands' armed forces" 16-17 December 2008
December 16 and 17, 2008, the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA) and the Clingendael Conflict and Security Programme (CSCP) organised a conference on the future of the Netherlands' armed forces.
The conference that took place is part of a wide-ranging Future Policy Survey regarding the Dutch armed forces. The assignment given by the Dutch government for this Future Policy Survey is to formulate policy options regarding future Dutch defence ambitions. This interdepartmental survey between the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Kingdom Relations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Justice, will result in a range of policy options based on an analysis of long-term developments and scenarios.
Projecting a glance towards the world in 2030, this conference addressed the question where the demand for the employment of armed forces will come from in the distant future. It deliberately looked beyond the traditional defence planning horizon of ten years. In essence it examined the evolving nature of conflict and the question how to deal with uncertainties. The discussions with a range of renowned international experts led to an understanding of the current views on issues that will most likely impact the international security environment, and thereby also the security of the Netherlands.
More sound knowledge on these issues should help indicating the potential operational environment in which Netherlands military units may find themselves operating in. What trends do the experts see? What is the nature of security and challenges to it in the future? What sort of missions will the armed forces be called upon to perform and in what sort of disputes? Answers to these and other questions will directly inform future defence policy.
Day one looked into three themes: (1) the interstate system and institutional dynamics, referring to potential geopolitical shifts between countries and regions and the influence of international institutions; (2) global security, which examined subjects such as energy, resource scarcity, environment, fragile states and the role of identity and religion; (3) the role of the nation State and issues affecting national security featuring topics such as terrorism and the role of non-state actors.
Day two offered views on methods to deal with the myriad of challenges highlighted during the previous day. How are other countries and organizations dealing with the notion that the international security context seems to become more unstable? What methods are there to make sense of the various trends and expectations?