The report is the end result of several activities:
Please pay specific attention to the Call for Proposals in Annex II of the report (and attached separately for your convenience), which has been issued to encourage the formulation and preparation of a PPC in Southern Sudan (deadline 15 October 2009).
]]>Ticking the box: elections in Sudan reveals that Sudan has much to lose and little to gain from the 2010 elections. A relatively peaceful 'ticking of the box' rather than an open and honest poll appears to be the best possible result that could be achieved. The international community is faced with the challenge to help reduce the threat of elections-related violence, while at the same time seize the few opportunities the 2010 ballot does have to offer.
]]>On the basis of interviews of Brussels-based EU or EU-affiliated officials, independent observers and a review of relevant literature, this report offers an overview of the EU’s set-up as regards the provision of support to SSR processes in partner countries including policy, funding mechanisms, actors and decision-making processes. It subsequently identifies tensions and weaknesses that exist at both the design/planning stage and at the implementation stage as a result of the current set-up, and highlights, where possible, potential solutions or avenues for invoking change and improvements.
This report is the first phase of a longer research project which will involve country case studies in the second phase in order to examine the impact of EU SSR support on the ground and to confront the Brussels or capital-based perspective with views from the field.
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Academics and practitioners agree on the importance of context. What will work in a specific situation will highly depend on a number of historical and current country-specific context factors, and how these define the structures of power, interests and incentives of major stakeholders. The study identifies the most important historic, foundational factors that in many post-conflict situations still influence the playing field, for example persistent horizontal inequalities, and hybrid political orders. But these ‘root causes’ of the conflict do not tell the whole story, since war transforms societies, and the peace (agreement) further adjusts interests and incentives. So the most relevant post-conflict factors are also identified, such as the way the conflict ended, the type of international intervention and the type of post-conflict (transition) regime.
The operational implications for national and international actors highly depend on the interplay of all these factors at the level of a specific country, and the conceptual framework of the actor. Nevertheless, the study proposes a number of tentative general operational implications for a medium sized international actor like the Netherlands, taking a pragmatic realist view. One recommendation is to set realistic objectives, that take into account the interests and incentives of major stakeholders and the scope of change these allow. Imposing reforms that run counter to the interests of major stakeholders are not likely to take root. Other recommendations focus on the scope for constitution-making and the further development of political systems. Also, the importance of recognising local capacity and locally legitimate institutions is stressed. It justifies balanced support to state and non-state institutions that have a basic legitimacy and capacity, as a way to strengthen governance in hybrid states.
As a follow-up to this desk-study, field studies will be carried out in four countries in order to assess to what extent the concepts developed and lessons identified can be applied in concrete situations.
Some of the preliminary findings of this publication were discussed at a meeting of international experts on 23 January 2009 in The Hague. The author wishes to thank all the experts who contributed valuable ideas to this study, at this meeting or afterwards.
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