Events
Clingendael Energy Lecture: "The Medium Term Oil Market Outlook" 2 February 2009
The Clingendael International Energy Programme is pleased to announce that on February 2, Mr. Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will visit the Clingendael Institute to give a Clingendael Energy Lecture on "The Medium Term Oil Market Outlook"
2008 was a year of unprecedented oil price volatility; prices increased from the low nineties in January of that year to 147 USD/barrel in July and subsequently rapidly declined to a low of around 35 USD/barrel at the end of the year. Amidst the price slide, earlier consumer supply concerns where swept away and replaced by producer demand uncertainty. The sharp economic downturn in the Fall of 2008 promptly exposed the myth of the decoupling of emerging markets, and resulted in a much dimmer oil demand outlook for 2009. In an attempt to stabilise oil prices, OPEC reduced production with about 4.2 million barrels compared to September 2008 levels.
While the global economic outlook remains weak for the next year or so, the currently delayed or scrapped investments in production capacity might imply a fairly rapid return to significantly higher oil prices, when economic growth resumes. Mr. Tanaka has accepted the Clingendael International Energy Programme invitation to discuss the short and medium term oil development of demand and supply in the context of the current economic downturn.