Events
CIEP/KNAW symposium 'Fossil Fuels: Reserves and Alternatives - A Scientific Approach' December 9th, 2004
On Thursday 9 December 2004, the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) and the Earth and Climate Council of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (RAK/KNAW) organised a symposium entitled "Fossil Fuels: Reserves and Alternatives - A Scientific Approach' at the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) 'Het Trippenhuis', Kloveniersburgwal 29, Amsterdam.
The symposium provided a scientific insight in the discussion on the future contribution of fossil fuels to the global energy system and what technologically feasible alternatives are currently available in order to meet the world's rising energy demand. Extended abstracts of the presentations are bundled in a booklet providing an up-to-date views on the subjects
Interest in fossil fuels has gained momentum. Petroleum experts around the world speculate on remaining oil and gas resources and reserves. Easy-to-produce crude oil and natural gas are non-renewable finite resources. Many analysts estimate that world oil production will peak before 2020, marking the start of a long period of decline. At the same time, potential demand will be very strong as economies like India and China industrialise. Currently new conventional oil fields are being discovered at a rate of less than one third of the world's annual production on average. The same holds for natural gas albeit with greater uncertainty. Our geological heritage is being depleted at a fast rate!
Meeting the world's future energy demand is going to be a major challenge. There is little doubt that we will eventually change to a new energy system. Timing however is still an issue of concern. The drivers of this change are a combination of the geology and geopolitics of fossil fuels, the rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and oceans, and the options made available by new technologies. It is predicted that the energy system of the future will continue to show substantial diversity with no single primary source, nor a single energy carrier.
The need to ensure a long-term supply of energy creates a renewed interest in the large existing non-conventional hydrocarbon resources (heavy oil, tar sands, gas hydrates etc.) and for coal, which can provide centuries of consumption at the present rate. Key technologies which make it possible to transform these different resources into clean fuels and energy while minimising CO2 emissions are required. Will clean fossil energy be the technologists' answer to global warming? Will wind, biomass and solar win over hearts and minds sooner than might be expected? Or will nuclear energy, in particular nuclear fusion, provide a solution?